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Putting the national housing situation in context
October 2nd, 2007 1:51 PM

I really appreciate this article. We are so easily susceptible to the fear tactics the national news sells us to earn their ratings. Austin, for example, is still a very healthy housing market (something I will be writing a blog entry on soon) but you wouldn't know it even from listening to our own KXAN or Austin American Statesmen voices. This article offers another perspective, one that looks at the numbers from a different, and broader, vantage point.  Enjoy. ~Jennifer

Assessing the downturn: A quick history lesson

Guest perspective: Questions to consider while looking ahead

By Stephen Bedikian

Over the past year, I've heard two questions asked on a near-constant basis: How long will this housing downturn last and how low will my market go? The simple answer is: when the inventory stops piling up.

To figure out when that will happen, housing economists study reams of data on building permits, housing starts, mortgage rates, loan resets, affordability indexes, job growth and a host of other factors including consumer psychology. Before you hear the answer from someone's crystal ball, it's worth establishing some historical context for your local market.

The most obvious questions are:

How long ago did the market hit its peak? Markets like Seattle, Charlotte and Atlanta are still rising. On the other hand, Boston peaked in September 2005, San Diego in November 2005 and Detroit in December 2005.

How far has the market fallen since hitting its peak? Detroit has fallen the furthest with a 12.4 percent decline as of July 2007, the most recent month for which the S&P Case Shiller indices have been published. San Diego and Tampa have both declined more than 8 percent so far. On the other hand, Chicago and Denver have fallen by less than 2 percent from their peaks.

How big was the run up in prices prior to the market peak? The big California markets all experienced increases of more than 200 percent in the 10-year period prior to hitting their peaks. Miami also soared more than 200 percent. In fact, 10 of the 20 markets in the table below all saw increases of at least 150 percent. The Midwestern markets saw much more restrained price appreciation with a low of 41 percent in Cleveland and a high of 117 percent in Minneapolis.

Looked at in this way, the contrasts are stark. Both the Los Angeles and Cleveland markets peaked in mid-2006 and both have fallen less than 5 percent, but Los Angeles appreciated 267 percent in the prior 10 years while Cleveland was up just 41 percent. You can reach your own conclusion about the desirability of living in Cleveland versus Los Angeles, but the downside price risk in your house would probably be a lot lower in Cleveland at this point.

While local market price direction is largely driven by local supply-and-demand factors, it's worth considering your market's recent past before you try to peer into its future.

Market

Month of Market Peak

10 Year Appreciation
Prior to Peak

Months into Downturn
(as of July 07)

% Decline from Peak
(as of July 07)

 

 

 

 

 

Los Angeles

Sep-06

267%

10

-4.8%

San Diego

Nov-05

251%

21

-8.3%

San Francisco

May-06

223%

14

-4.5%

Miami

Dec-06

219%

8

-7.3%

Washington

May-06

182%

14

-7.6%

Phoenix, Ariz.

Jun-06

179%

13

-7.3%

Tampa, Fla.

Jul-06

171%

12

-8.8%

New York

Jun-06

170%

13

-4.0%

Las Vegas

Aug-06

161%

11

-6.3%

Boston

Sep-05

158%

22

-5.8%

Seattle, Wash.

---

135%

---

---

Minneapolis, Minn.

Sep-06

117%

10

-3.7%

Portland, Ore.

---

100%

---

---

Chicago

Sep-06

96%

10

-1.5%

Denver

Aug-06

89%

11

-0.7%

Detroit, Mich.

Dec-05

72%

20

-12.4%

Atlanta, Ga.

---

59%

---

---

Charlotte, N.C.

---

48%

---

---

Cleveland, Ohio

Jul-06

41%

12

-3.6%

Dallas, Texas*

---

26%

---

---

   *Dallas index compiled only since January 2000
   Source: S&P Case Shiller National Price indices

 

 

Stephen Bedikian is a partner at Real IQ, which provides consulting and housing market analysis. He can be reached by phone at: (310) 871-3737 or by e-mail: sbedikian@realiq.com. Or contact him via his blog at http://realiq.wordpress.com/.


Posted by Jennifer Naman on October 2nd, 2007 1:51 PMPost a Comment (0)

More lenders offering no-cost mortgages - article
October 4th, 2007 11:51 AM

More lenders offering no-cost mortgages

Best candidates are those who plan to hold loan less than 5 years

Jack Guttentag
Inman News

In a recent article, I examined Bank of America's new no-fee program for house purchasers, under which lender and third-party fees are absorbed by the bank. On a fixed-rate mortgage, the borrower pays the interest rate and points, and that's it. Price shopping would be so much easier, I mused, if all lenders did the same.

A spokesman for another large lender responded to that article by claiming that other lenders do offer the same product, but they give it a different name; they call it a "no-cost mortgage."

I will explain what he means with an oversimplified example. A lender who absorbs all costs in its rate and points must mark up the price accordingly. For example, if BofA is prepared to absorb $3,000 of costs including third-party charges to acquire a $300,000 loan at 6 percent, it will price a no-fee loan at 6 percent and zero points.

Now consider Lender X offering the same loan, and faced with the same $3,000 in costs except that the costs are billed to the borrower. This lender offers 6 percent at -1 point, which is a rebate to the borrower. The borrower selecting the 6 percent mortgage on which the rebate just covers the $3,000 has a no-cost mortgage from X that appears identical to that of BofA's.

In other words, the borrower from BofA pays 6 percent and nothing else. The borrower from X pays 6 percent plus $3,000 in fees but receives a $3,000 rebate from X.

But note a critical difference. The $3,000 charged the borrower by X is probably not guaranteed. A few lenders guarantee their own fees (see below); even fewer guarantee third-party fees. All the rest provide estimates, which sometimes have a funny way of escalating as loans move toward closing. So the borrower dealing with X might end up with a rebate worth $3,000 and be billed for $4,000 in costs. That can't happen with the BofA mortgage.

Most borrowers are not aware of the no-cost option from lenders other than BofA. The loan officers and mortgage brokers with whom they deal are unlikely to volunteer the information because no-cost loans are easier to comparison shop. If the borrower requests a no-cost quote, they will comply, but the quotes are based on cost estimates that can be far off the mark.

Borrowers can roll their own no-cost mortgage online. They do this by selecting an interest rate that carries a rebate large enough to cover the settlement costs. This requires that they have access to the complete range of rate/point combinations offered by the lender, as well as the settlement costs.

Unfortunately, very few lenders provide this information on their Web sites. Among those that do are Upfront Mortgage Lenders (UMLs), which are listed on my site. UMLs must provide this information in order to be certified.

As a source of no-cost loans, UMLs have advantages and disadvantages relative to BofA. UMLs provide online pricing for a wider range of products, and they provide complete pricing data on adjustable-rate mortgages online, which BofA does not. On the other hand, BofA pays third-party fees as well as its own, whereas UMLs guarantee only their own fees. Third-party fees are estimates -- honest estimates, but still estimates.

NOTE: If you expect to have the mortgage five years or longer, you don't want a no-cost mortgage unless you are desperately short of cash. If you have the cash, it pays to buy down the interest rate by paying points rather than the reverse. This calls for a revision of your shopping strategy, from finding the lowest no-cost rate to finding the lowest cost at a specified rate below the no-cost rate.

For example, if a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with no cost is available at 6 percent, set 5.5 percent as your shopping rate and find the lowest cost at that rate. With BofA, it will be the points charged on the 5.5 percent loan, which may or may not be available online. With UMLs, it will be the sum of lender and third-party charges at 5.5 percent, which will be available online.

The writer is professor of finance emeritus at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Comments and questions can be left at www.mtgprofessor.com.


Posted by Jennifer Naman on October 4th, 2007 11:51 AMPost a Comment (0)

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